Tampa Bay Region on High Alert for Tornadoes and Damaging Winds Saturday Morning
In October, two F-2 tornadoes struck near Clearwater and Crystal River. Photo Credits: Clearwater Fire & Rescue Department
By Tampa Bay Living Magazine staff
Residents across the Tampa Bay area are on high alert as forecasters predict a series of strong thunderstorms to sweep through the region Saturday morning. The National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather outlook, warning of potential damaging wind gusts and the risk of isolated tornadoes.
Photo Credits: National Weather Service - Tampa Bay/Ruskin
Weather experts say if the storms arrive earlier, the Tampa Bay region will experience less daytime heating, resulting in reduced instability in the atmosphere and a decreased likelihood of severe weather. However, if most of the energy slows down and arrives around midday, there is a slightly higher chance for strong storms, tornadoes and damaging winds in the Tampa Bay area.
Favorable wind shear across Florida will increase the risk of tornadoes and locally damaging gusts over coastal areas and inland regions, said the National Weather Service in a statement, which issued a broad marginal risk for severe weather in Tampa Bay and across the Florida peninsula.
Emergency officials advised residents to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts overnight and into the morning hours.
Photo Credits: National Weather Service - Tampa Bay/Ruskin
Florida's Climate Shift: After Years of La Niña, El Niño Makes a Grand Entrance
Florida is experiencing its first El Niño pattern in five years, following years of La Niña. The last El Niño was in 2018–2019, and the current pattern is stronger. During an El Niño winter, the southern third to half of the United States experiences wetter weather. The storm the area will experience this weekend can be directly attributed to the recent shift in weather patterns.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern defined by higher-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This occurrence occurs infrequently every few years and can have far-reaching consequences for weather patterns around the world, particularly in Tampa Bay. The atmospheric circulation patterns alter during an El Niño event, causing changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and storm activity. El Niño’s impact on the U.S. is weak in the summer but more pronounced in late fall through spring.
Experts say this storm could be one of many the region will see this winter and even into the 2024 hurricane season.
“Storms of this magnitude induced by both El Niño and the continually warming waters of the Gulf of Mexico could be warning signals we need to pay close attention to for hurricane season 2024,” said former U.S. Air Force Weather Forecaster and Analyst David Nazario in an interview with Tampa Bay Living Magazine.